Combat, or conflict, modeling has a long history of being used by government and military organizations to explore the potential impact, effectiveness and/or efficiency of different proposed courses of action. Examine how modelers develop combat or conflict models and how the results are used. Get the fundamentals, basic computer-based combat models, the difference between and implications of deterministic vs. Monte Carlo models, model support of war games, and efforts to model the overall conflict environment (DIME on PMESII).

• Modelers
• Wargamers
• Programmers

• Know the history, philosophy and principles of combat modeling and simulation
• Understand the issues involved in the validation, verification and accreditation of combat or conflict models
• Describe the differences between deterministic and Monte Carlo models, their structure and operation, and in the implications of their results
• Explore issues involved with building combat models related to assumptions, variable instantiation, and data validation
• Examine the environment you wish to model, choose a suitable modeling strategy, and explain/defend your choice
• Assess the strengths and weaknesses of the DIME on PMESII modeling example presented in class

• Introduction to Combat Modeling
• Lab and Analysis: Richthtofen's War
• Deterministic Models
  • Principles of deterministic models
  • Historical examples
  • Computer instantiation
  • Issues related to assumptions, validation
• Monte Carlo Models
  • Principles of Monte Carlo models
  • Historical examples
  • Computer instantiation
  • Issues related to assumptions, validation
• Issues and Limitations of Combat Models
  • Validation of models and data
  • Limitations of each paradigm
  • Historical examples of models incorrectly used
• Randomness and Random Number Generators (RNG)
  • Construction of RNGs
  • Limitations of RNGs
  • Testing RNGs for "randomness"
• Other Modeling Paradigms; Future Trends
  • Systems Dynamics Models
  • Agent-based Models
  • DIME on PMESII models

Participants receive course lecture and laboratory materials.

This course is an elective for the Modeling & Simulation Certificate.